Fuel poverty estimates for April 2023 following the Autumn Statement
Please note: updated figures for 2023-24, including the effect of the cost of living payments, can be found here.
Since August 2022 we have been making estimates of household fuel poverty (defined as spending 10 per cent or more of net after housing costs equivalent income on fuel) based on secondary analysis of the ONS Living Costs and Food Survey (LCFS) 2019/20. The most recent version of these estimates was published by Child Poverty Action Group in its journal Poverty.
On 17 November 2022 the Chancellor announced that the energy price guarantee (EPG) would be raised from £2,500 to £3,000 from April 2023, when the £400 per household energy rebate would also end. He also announced that social security benefits and pensions would rise by 10.1 per cent, and that there would be a new set of costs of living payments for pensioners, those receiving means-tested benefits and people on disability benefits.
Meanwhile the ONS had sent the micro data from the 2020/21 LCFS to the survey archive. This update is based on that data.
There is one other addition that we have made to our original analysis. Unlike our previous analyses using the 2019/20 LCFS, in this version using LCFS 2020/21 we have increased net household income by 10 per cent. This is an attempt to adjust for improvements in net income between September 2020 and April 2023. We have to acknowledge it is only an estimate. Household incomes will have been affected by Covid during 2020/21, especially the £20 per week uplift in universal credit. There were upratings of benefits in April 2021 (by 0.5 per cent) and 2022 (by 3.1 per cent) and they will increase again in April 2023 (by 10.1 per cent). Also, the minimum wage has been increased faster over this period than general increases in earnings. ONS estimates show that nominal earnings grew by 1.0 per cent in the year ending April 2020, 5.5 per cent in the year ending April 2021 and 6.9 per cent in the year ending April 2022. But all those increases will have been offset by reductions in UC and/or increases in taxation. Remember we are dealing with net household income.
There are still many defects in this analysis. We take no account of any behavioural responses. The energy price cap is applied to all expenditure on fuel and it is still not at all clear how the EPG is going to be delivered to oil and LPG users. It is not possible to take account of household energy requirements using the LCFS. The government measure of fuel poverty based on the English Housing Survey attempts to do that. But their estimates are not up to date. We have not yet taken account of the cost of living payments paid through the social security system.
We have added one new indicator of fuel poverty in Table 4. This is closer to, but not identical to, the measure proposed by Professor John Hills in his review of fuel poverty. It shows the proportion of households that are pushed into poverty by rising fuel costs using the conventional income poverty threshold of net income after housing costs (AHC) less than 60 per cent of the median.
Table 1: Weekly fuel expenditure, fuel poverty rates and fuel poverty gaps and numbers of households and individuals in fuel poverty
Actual 20/21
| Oct 2022 (with rebate)
| April 2023
| |
Average weekly fuel expenditure
| |||
Mean £
| 23.50
| 32.67
| 57.66
|
Median £
| 20.77
| 27.09
| 50.96
|
% UK households in fuel poverty on different measures | |||
>10% net income (AHC) | 23.5 | 32.3 | 65.3 |
>20% net income (AHC) | 7.3 | 11.1 | 27.1 |
>25% net income (AHC) | 4.8 | 7.8 | 18.6 |
>30% net income (AHC) | 3.6 | 5.8 | 13.6 |
Average weekly fuel poverty gap on different measures | |||
>10% net income (AHC) | |||
Mean £ | 13.25 | 24.28 | 32.74 |
Median £ | 8.87 | 15.96 | 24.74 |
>20% net income (AHC) | |||
Mean £ | 15.77 | 27.89 | 31.82 |
Median £ | 9.95 | 16.16 | 21.60 |
>25% net income (AHC) | |||
Mean £ | 18.55 | 29.14 | 32.98 |
Median £ | 12.18 | 18.85 | 21.71 |
>30% net income (AHC) | |||
Mean £ | 21.39 | 30.43 | 34.18 |
Median £ | 14.35 | 17.49 | 22.56 |
Number of households living in fuel poverty on different measures | |||
>10% net income (AHC) | 6,525,000 | 8,964,000 | 18,109,000 |
>20% net income (AHC) | 2,037,000 | 3,071,000 | 7,517,000 |
>25% net income (AHC) | 1,330,000 | 2,166,000 | 5,166,000 |
>30% net income (AHC) | 996,000 | 1,608,000 | 3,763,000 |
Number of people in fuel poverty on different measures | |||
>10% net income (AHC) | 17,128,000 | 24,504,000 | 45,503,000 |
>20% net income (AHC) | 5,207,000 | 8,497,000 | 19,718,000 |
>25% net income (AHC) | 3,167,000 | 6,008,000 | 13,547,000 |
>30% net income (AHC) | 2,330,000 | 4,425,000 | 9,947,000 |
Sources: LCFS 2020-21 weighted data. Weekly rebate of £15.38 applied to Oct 22. Assumed 10 per cent increase in household income in 2022-23.
Table 2: Estimated percentages and numbers of households living in fuel poverty by region
October 2022 (with rebate) Fuel poverty thresholds, after housing costs | ||||||||
10% | 20% | 25% | 30% | |||||
Region | Count (000s) | % within region | Count (000s) | % within region | Count (000s) | % within region | Count (000s) | % within region |
North East | 461 | 38.5% | 174 | 14.5% | 116 | 9.7% | 84 | 7.0% |
North West & Merseyside | 923 | 29.6% | 254 | 8.2% | 189 | 6.1% | 132 | 4.2% |
Yorkshire & the Humber | 862 | 34.7% | 328 | 13.2% | 234 | 9.4% | 160 | 6.4% |
East Midlands | 537 | 24.1% | 177 | 8.0% | 136 | 6.1% | 103 | 4.6% |
West Midlands | 675 | 28.8% | 268 | 11.4% | 179 | 7.6% | 124 | 5.3% |
Eastern | 859 | 33.2% | 305 | 11.8% | 233 | 9.0% | 155 | 6.0% |
London | 1,128 | 34.4% | 416 | 12.7% | 339 | 10.3% | 280 | 8.5% |
South East | 1,022 | 27.8% | 314 | 8.5% | 207 | 5.6% | 176 | 4.8% |
South West | 843 | 35.4% | 269 | 11.3% | 179 | 7.5% | 137 | 5.8% |
Wales | 505 | 40.1% | 139 | 11.0% | 68 | 5.4% | 47 | 3.7% |
Scotland | 828 | 33.5% | 309 | 12.5% | 223 | 9.0% | 169 | 6.8% |
Northern Ireland | 320 | 44.3% | 118 | 16.3% | 63 | 8.7% | 42 | 5.8% |
Total | 8,963 | 32.3% | 3,071 | 11.1% | 2,166 | 7.8% | 1,609 | 5.8% |
April 2023 Fuel poverty thresholds, after housing costs | ||||||||
10% | 20% | 25% | 30% | |||||
Region | Count (000s) | % within region | Count (000s) | % within region | Count (000s) | % within region | Count (000s) | % within region |
North East | 878 | 73.4% | 423 | 35.3% | 276 | 23.1% | 225 | 18.8% |
North West & Merseyside | 2,151 | 69.1% | 772 | 24.8% | 492 | 15.8% | 324 | 10.4% |
Yorkshire & the Humber | 1,741 | 70.1% | 759 | 30.5% | 525 | 21.1% | 355 | 14.3% |
East Midlands | 1,390 | 62.4% | 456 | 20.5% | 324 | 14.6% | 223 | 10.0% |
West Midlands | 1,547 | 66.0% | 562 | 24.0% | 429 | 18.3% | 300 | 12.8% |
Eastern | 1,644 | 63.5% | 756 | 29.2% | 525 | 20.3% | 400 | 15.4% |
London | 1,872 | 57.1% | 955 | 29.1% | 705 | 21.5% | 555 | 16.9% |
South East | 2,156 | 58.6% | 769 | 20.9% | 534 | 14.5% | 390 | 10.6% |
South West | 1,588 | 66.7% | 685 | 28.8% | 450 | 18.9% | 325 | 13.6% |
Wales | 879 | 69.8% | 407 | 32.3% | 259 | 20.6% | 173 | 13.7% |
Scotland | 1,740 | 70.4% | 713 | 28.9% | 459 | 18.6% | 369 | 14.9% |
Northern Ireland | 522 | 72.3% | 261 | 36.1% | 188 | 26.0% | 124 | 17.2% |
Total | 18,108 | 65.3% | 7,518 | 27.1% | 5,166 | 18.6% | 3,763 | 13.6% |
Source: LCFS 2020-21 weighted data.
Table 3: Estimated fuel poverty rates by household type
October 2022 (with rebate) Fuel poverty thresholds, after housing costs | ||||||||
10% | 20% | 25% | 30% | |||||
Family type | Count (000s) | % within family type | Count (000s) | % within family type | Count (000s) | % within family type | Count (000s) | % within family type |
Single | 1,047 | 24.7% | 517 | 12.2% | 437 | 10.3% | 373 | 8.8% |
Couple | 954 | 18.1% | 271 | 5.1% | 200 | 3.8% | 129 | 2.4% |
Couple, 1 child | 649 | 32.1% | 265 | 13.1% | 148 | 7.3% | 124 | 6.1% |
Couple, 2 children | 1,045 | 41.5% | 311 | 12.4% | 236 | 9.4% | 185 | 7.4% |
Couple, 3 children | 472 | 57.5% | 203 | 24.7% | 157 | 19.1% | 107 | 13.0% |
Couple, 4+ children | 135 | 72.6% | 69 | 37.1% | 67 | 36.0% | 48 | 25.8% |
Lone parent, 1 child | 221 | 42.0% | 101 | 19.2% | 61 | 11.6% | 43 | 8.2% |
Lone parent, 2+ children | 392 | 64.8% | 180 | 29.8% | 155 | 25.6% | 132 | 21.8% |
Pensioner, single | 1,070 | 28.1% | 325 | 8.5% | 229 | 6.0% | 170 | 4.5% |
Pensioner couple | 1,447 | 34.0% | 369 | 8.7% | 209 | 4.9% | 120 | 2.8% |
Other pensioners (living with dependent children or multi-unit) | 330 | 45.1% | 83 | 11.3% | 73 | 10.0% | 53 | 7.2% |
Other (multi-unit)* | 1,202 | 43.4% | 377 | 13.6% | 194 | 7.0% | 125 | 4.5% |
Total | 8,964 | 32.3% | 3,071 | 11.1% | 2,166 | 7.8% | 1,609 | 5.8% |
April 2023 Fuel poverty thresholds, after housing costs | ||||||||
10% | 20% | 25% | 30% | |||||
Family type | Count (000s) | % within family type | Count (000s) | % within family type | Count (000s) | % within family type | Count (000s) | % within family type |
Single | 2,163 | 51.1% | 1,163 | 27.5% | 902 | 21.3% | 709 | 16.7% |
Couple | 2,376 | 45.1% | 820 | 15.6% | 518 | 9.8% | 363 | 6.9% |
Couple, 1 child | 1,291 | 63.9% | 521 | 25.8% | 372 | 18.4% | 297 | 14.7% |
Couple, 2 children | 1,932 | 76.8% | 768 | 30.5% | 488 | 19.4% | 348 | 13.8% |
Couple, 3 children | 713 | 86.7% | 427 | 51.9% | 303 | 36.9% | 220 | 26.8% |
Couple, 4+ children | 186 | 100.0% | 115 | 61.8% | 105 | 56.5% | 91 | 48.9% |
Lone parent, 1 child | 437 | 83.1% | 231 | 43.9% | 169 | 32.1% | 141 | 26.8% |
Lone parent, 2+ children | 586 | 96.9% | 378 | 62.5% | 299 | 49.4% | 238 | 39.3% |
Pensioner, single | 2,727 | 71.5% | 961 | 25.2% | 657 | 17.2% | 486 | 12.7% |
Pensioner couple | 3,005 | 70.6% | 1,039 | 24.4% | 654 | 15.4% | 387 | 9.1% |
Other pensioners (living with dependent children or multi-unit) | 581 | 79.4% | 247 | 33.7% | 157 | 21.4% | 109 | 14.9% |
Other (multi-unit)* | 2,112 | 76.3% | 848 | 30.6% | 543 | 19.6% | 373 | 13.5% |
Total | 18,109 | 65.3% | 7,518 | 27.1% | 5,167 | 18.6% | 3,762 | 13.6% |
Sources: LCFS 2020-21 weighted data. *A household with more than one benefit unit.
Table 4: Weekly energy expenditure, % of households and number of individuals with residual net income less than 60% of the median after housing (AHC) and energy costs (AEC), and the poverty gaps
Actual 2020/21 | Oct 2022 (with rebate) EPG cap: £2,500 | April 2023 EPG cap: £3,000 | |
Energy expenditure | Mean £23.50 Median £20.77 | Mean £32.67 Median £27.09 | Mean £57.66 Median £50.96 |
Equivalised net household income AHC and AEC | Mean £383.74 Median £344.15 | Mean £424.90 Median £379.68 | Mean £407.91 Median £364.63 |
% of households living in poverty AHC only (A) | 29% | 27.7% | 27.7% |
% of households living in poverty AHC and AEC (B) | 31.9% | 31.3% | 34.5% |
% point difference (B) - (A) | +2.9% point | +3.6% point | +6.8% point |
Average poverty gap AHC and AEC | Mean £95.32 Median £80.94 | Mean £103.65 Median £88.68 | Mean £111.21 Median £93.83 |
Number of households living in poverty AHC and AEC | 8,859,000 | 8,678,000 | 9,574,000 |
Number of people living in poverty AHC and AEC | 19,296,000 | 18,982,000 | 20,874,000 |
Source: LCFS 2020/21 weighted. Weekly rebate of £15.38 applied to Oct 22. Assumed 10% increase in household income in 2022/23.